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The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.
During this episode, Jake Sotiriadis discusses how future studies can identify weak signals and emerging trends in order to develop anticipatory thinking which leads to better decisions.
Research Question: Jake believes that we need to spend more time learning about and learning from the robust future studies literature and different methodological approaches like: back casting, causal layered analysis, traditional scenario development, the futures wheel, plus others. He encourages students to first master a narrow area of expertise and then question the status quo. Ask the question: Where are there opportunities? How do we capture emergent phenomena? How do we anticipate?
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- The History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides
- Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
- The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World by Peter Schwartz
- Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers by Richard E. Neustadt
- IPA Seeks Authors and Cognitive Security Thought Leaders
Dr. Jake Sotiriadis is a global futurist and expert in geopolitical risk intelligence. He is Director of The Center for Futures Intelligence at National Intelligence University (NIU), where he also serves on the research faculty. Dr. Sotiriadis previously served as the US Air Force’s senior futurist at the Pentagon in Washington and founded the service’s Strategic Foresight and Futures Team. At NIU, his research assists senior leaders in the intelligence and national security communities develop anticipatory thinking and strategic planning. He has served nearly two decades as an Air Force intelligence officer and holds a Ph.D. in political science and geopolitical futures from the University of Hawaii at Manoa. He also serves as an advisor to the State Department and teaches courses at the Foreign Service Institute. His forthcoming book, “The Invisible Regime: How Ideology Will Shape 21st Century Geopolitical Competition” will be published in 2023 by The National Intelligence Press.
About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.
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